Tulare County
Milk Lines (July 1999)

Disclaimer: This newsletter is geared towards a Tulare County audience and may not be applicable to other geographical areas.

Reprint freely with credit to: Milk Lines, Tom Shultz, editor, a publication of the University of California Cooperative Extension, Tulare County.

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For more information contact: Tom Shultz, Dairy Advisor, tashultz@ucdavis.edu

The Milk Lines - July 1999

Year 2000

There has been and continues to be mention of the Y2K bug that could affect computer and computer driven programs as we pass into the new century. As we pass into the new millennium, everything from the end of the world to relatively nothing occurring has been predicted and there are sales pitches attached to some of the messages. Most banking institutions and airlines have stated they are or will be compliant to prevent any major problems. What is being done locally that could affect the dairy industry? What should the individual producer do in preparation for the 31st of December? The event is only five months away and rapidly approaching.

The Y2K problem is basically due to many computers being originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of the year. Consequently, come January 1st, 2000, these computers would assume it is 1900. Some companies and government agencies have been upgrading their computers and programs for years to overcome the problem. Many new computers and programs now come equipped to prevent the problem. The following Y2K comments were from some of the parties that could affect the local dairy industry. Further questions can be directed to the phone numbers/Web sites listed, and additional service providers should also be contacted as needed.

The electrical power companies have been addressing the issue intensively for at least the past two years. This includes both internal computer driven services as well as external sources. This involves both the California and western U.S. and Canada power grids, as well as state and independent suppliers. Y2K compliance progress reports are coordinated with the Securities & Exchange Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission. Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric have issued statements that as of July 1st, 1999, both SCE and PG&E have completed 100 percent readiness on their systems. Further information can be obtained from SCE at www.sce.com/y2ksca/index_y2.htm or telephone 1-800-816-8112, and from PG&E at www.pge.com/2000 or 1-800-743-5000.

Both data processing centers serving the majority of farms locally are preparing for Y2K. Agri-Tech Analytics has stated as of July 1999 their systems have been compliance upgraded and will be fully operational for the new year. They can be queried at www.agritech.com or telephone 1-800-532-0900. DHI in Provo can be accessed at www.dhiprovo.com or 1-800-453-9400, ext. 704, and are in the process of testing their Y2K compliance program.

The locally most common dairy data program, Dairy Comp 305, has been stated as fully Y2K compliant, and related inquiries can be directed to william@vas.com or 559-686-9496 (Valley Ag Services-Tulare). Tulare DHIA computer programs and tester laptop computers have checked out OK, and lab equipment is currently under test. Related questions can be directed to the manager, David Brown, at 559-686-6173.

Computer experts urge each dairy producer to check their PC's for Y2K compliance. The 386 versions will need attention. Some 486's are OK, while others are not. A quick check is to see if you can change the system date on the computer to 2/29/2000. To check data software, look at a due date of a cow to calve in January 2000 for accuracy. It was also stressed to have an updated version of a virus program and make backup files of important daily data during the transition period. Vendors and/or consultants for specific computers and software programs should be contacted now to answer questions while there is relatively less activity.

Updates from the major local milk receivers and processors detailed a step-wise progress toward Y2K readiness. Land O' Lakes reports program completion is expected by the third quarter of 1999 for all in-house systems, and guarantees have been solicited from vendors and other businesses that are critical to operations regarding ability or inability to meet needs before, during, and after December 31st. More details can be obtained from Land O' Lakes at www.landolakesinc.com/year2000 or call 651-634-4704.

Similarly, California Milk Producers has identified all computer program needs and has made necessary replacements or upgrades. Also, their vendors and suppliers, truck services, banks, and laboratories have been queried by affidavit for Y2K capabilities. Locally, questions can be asked at 752-5200.

Meanwhile, on the farm, some milking systems manufactured after 1993 were stated as Y2K compliant and some from 1995. Suffice it to say producers should ask their vendors about their own system. This inquiry is obviously needed for any other computer driven items. While at it, check on Y2K capabilities of feed suppliers and others critical to herd health and productivity. In spite of reassurances, make sure the backup generator is ready to go. Now is the time to prepare the precautionary measures and "what if" contingency plans. Hopefully common sense management will go a long way to cover the expected; it is the unexpected that will make it interesting.

Watch out for scams related to "quick fixes" of Y2K questions. Also, beware of e-mail offering "patches" to solve Y2K problems in computer software. These could contain viruses. Reputable vendors of hardware and software assistance normally don't do mass e-mailing.

Milk Production

U.S. milk production for the first half of 1999 was 3.2% higher than a year ago. During this period, cow numbers were down 0.3%, but milk per cow was up 3.6%. The last time milk production expanded more than 3% for the year was in 1985. California milk production is up 9% compared to a year ago. Idaho is up 8.6%; New Mexico, 6.3%; Arizona, 5.2%; and Washington, 2.2%. These five states also had 90,000 more milk cows than last year. The percent change from May 1998 to May 1999 for Tulare, San Bernardino, Riverside, Merced, Stanislaus, Fresno, Kings, Madera, San Joaquin, and Kern Counties was, respectively, 14, 7, 9, 8, 7, 7, 10, 14, 3, and 26%.

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